![]() To take the second group’s argument, if China were to grow at these rates while reducing its high investment to a more sustainable level, its consumption growth would have to surge. Even without the geopolitical tensions of recent years and policies in the United States, India, and the European Union (EU) aimed at boosting domestic investment and manufacturing, this would still be highly unlikely. In that case, it could only do so if the rest of the world agreed to accommodate that growth by reducing its own investment and manufacturing levels to less than half the Chinese level. To take the first group’s argument, if China were to maintain current growth rates while keeping its high investment and manufacturing shares of GDP, its share of global investment and manufacturing would expand much faster than its share of global GDP. However, both strategies face significant constraints that must be overcome if China is to maintain GDP growth rates even of 2–3 percent (or less). The other group argues instead that China can maintain high growth rates only if it sharply reduces the investment share of GDP and replaces it with a greater reliance on consumption, something which Beijing has been trying to do for over a decade. One group argues that China must maintain the investment-driven and manufacturing-intensive strategy it has followed during the past three to four decades. There are two different groups of economists in China that believe that with the right-albeit very different-set of economic policies, China’s economy will be able to grow sustainably by 4–5 percent for many more years.
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